Observations, rants, theories, speculation on future market movement, experiences, offer heartbreak, buyer fatigue, seller drama, mortgage drama, appraisal drama, anecdotes, new construction builder shenanigans, rate predictions, frustration with seller listing price strategy, crystal balls, and so on, that you may not feel warrant their own threads, but you want to get it off your chest.
Individual threads of that nature, that are repetitive (the 1000th thread consisting of “omg the market is hot and rates are high!!”, for example, doesn’t warrant it’s own thread if that’s all the OP is) may be merged into here, too.
Episode VI: Revenge of the Doomers It was a time of turbulence! Darth Aardy mysteriously declined to make a Q4 2022 thread, thus single handedly preventing the United States real estate bubble from popping and imploding. Rebel forces amassed, and using a coded signal, under the leadership of General ShortWoman, a de facto Q4 thread was created instead. Knowing that the reason Darth Aardy did not make a Q4 thread was to further inflate a real estate bubble, chaos was allowed to reign! The "Q4" thread was allowed to live a full month into the new year, causing the deaths of untold millions with OCD. Now, in the new year, on the First of February it is time to impose order and discipline on the galaxy... Yeah satire stuff really isn't my thing, I'll just stop. I'm stopping. I've stopped. Done like a cinnamon bun, I am.
Onto the awards section! First, let’s do Q3 2022 Awards. Per the reddit algorithm:
The BEST post of Q3 2022 was by /u/grdvrs (7 months ago)
Getting really fed up with manipulative and dishonest listing agents.
“We’ve got 3 offers, one over list and all waving contingencies, so bring your best.”
Then it’s still on the market after a week. Maybe this would have worked Feb-April, but now it seems like bluffing is just a bad strategy.
The TOP post of Q3 2022 was by /u/pic_bot
It’s 2065, and the short-term rental market in Boise remains in full swing.
Todd’s phone buzzed, waking him from a fretful sleep. It was check-out time. As he brushed his teeth, he checked his Airbnb™ neuralink for this morning’s calendar:
8:15 — 8:45 am: East Westwood Apartment Complex, Unit #4815
8:45 — 10:20: Cherrywood Hills Residences, Apt #16
10:25 — 11:15: West Eastwood Apartment Complex, Unit #2342
The cleaning fee for Eastwood was a bit higher that Todd would have preferred to pay. However, the cost was offset by a long-term rental discount for the Cherrywood, since Todd was staying for over an hour.
In any case, Todd knew he could easily afford it, since his minimum wage had just been lifted to $10 trillion USD per hour.
The most CONTROVERSIAL post in Q3 2022 was by /u/dpf7 (4 months ago, one of the last posts in that thread)
I love when doomers say shit like “it’s happening just like we thought” Back in January NONE of you were like “prices will rise by 17% from here by the summer, rates will hit over 6% and people will be paying 40% more for their mortgages than now” so quit acting like you are so prescient.
You bozos thought prices might not even rise at all this spring and a small rate hike(hitting 4-4.5%) would crater prices.
Those posts range from about 4 months ago, to about 7 months ago.
Now let’s do the Q4 2022 Awards! posts ranging from a few days ago, to 4 months ago.
According to the reddit algorithm, the BEST post of Q4 2022 was by /u/PrivatBrowsrStopsBan (9 days ago)
FTHBs now make up 26% of all buyers, lowest in history.
The median FTHB age is now 36, highest in history.
FTHBs now put down, on average, 6% towards their home loan, lowest in history.
Married couples now make up less than half of first time homebuyers (49%) while unmarried couples went from virtually 0% of sales in the 1980s to 18% today.
Only 3% of first time buyers were black, the lowest level ever recorded (since 03). 88% were white, the highest level in decades. The homeownership gap by race is now larger than it was in 1960.
Edit: Added a couple more to the list
The TOP post was, BOOM ONCE AGAIN (!!!!!) by /u/pic_bot (4 months ago)
This year’s Davos meeting was tense but insightful. Gathered around a glowing orb sat the world’s most powerful leaders and economists: Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell, and Paul Krugman. They discussed weighty concerns—the global economic outlook, the weakening of NATO ties, and the Zestimates of homes in Boise, Idaho.
For this year’s Davos, a new voice had been invited to join their rarefied discussions.
Todd from Jacksonville didn’t have some egghead degree in public policy or macroeconomics from Yale, but rather from the school of hard knocks. While those other nerds were sitting in their ivory tower, making up formulas and claiming something about median wages, Todd had been out in the real world, making deals and hustling. His fairy-tale rise to power had started when he joined a Facebook group called “BRRRR Invest” and began carefully heeding the advice of licensed real estate professionals. Todd had discovered a previously-unknown investing strategy called “leverage,” that had eluded the most seasoned economists of his time.
Amid a silence in the Davos discussions, Todd’s commanding words echoed through the hallowed halls, demanding the attention of all who had the privilege of eavesdropping: Why don’t we just lower the rates until prices go BOOM. There’s no more land bro. It’s all about supply-and-demand and the invisible hand of the market. Renters are lazy and I am special. Buy near hospitals so that traveling nurses will totally pay your mortgage for you.
Todd’s wraparound sunglasses cast an orange glare across the marble colonnade. The other invitees sat stunned. Why hadn’t they thought of that?
The most CONTROVERSIAL post in the Q4 2022 + 1 month thread was by /u/Huckleberry_Ginn
It’s baffling seeing folks comparing “2022 peak” to homes sold today, and then extrapolating that to a crash.
Spring and early summer is when folks buy and sell houses. It’s unsurprising that houses left all year are willing to accept lower offers or are trying to quickly sell a house before the winter dead months (real estate is mostly dead from week before thanksgiving to a couple weeks after Christmas).
If you’re comparing houses selling in late October to premier houses being sold in the spring frenzy, you’re a clown. There is a reason that YoY numbers hold weight in the real estate world. Would you ever compare amazons revenue in December to March? Obviously not, because everyone is buying Christmas gifts in December.
As always, this could be the beginning of houses prices falling, but most likely, especially when considering historical trends, it’s a seasonal lull to see homes 5-10% off the years peak.